CALGARY—The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is predicting the country’s oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day by 2035, despite an ongoing “competitiveness gap” that discourages investment.
The group, which represents Canada’s upstream oil and gas sector, says total Canadian oil production will increase to 5.6 million barrels per day in the next 17 years mainly due to a rise in oilsands production to 4.2 million barrel per day from 2.65 million barrels per day in 2017.
It says Western Canada’s non-oilsands crude production will be flat at about 1.3 million barrels per day in 2035.
Output in Eastern Canada is expected to rise to 290,000 barrels per day by 2025 from major offshore projects including Hebron, Hibernia, Terra Nova, and White Rose, CAPP says, adding production will then drop to just 70,000 barrels per day by 2035 as oil is pumped out.
CAPP says Canada’s oil output exceeded its transport capacity in 2017 as proposed pipelines including TransCanada’s Keystone XL project, the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline (despite being sold to the federal government) and Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement face uncertainty.